At Winthrop, we help our clients live life in the moment while boldly exploring and imagining possibilities for their future. Our approach enables us to explore every aspect of your life so that we can design a big-picture plan and investment solutions that balance practicality with opportunity.
Whoever you are, and wherever you are on your journey, our multi-generational team has all the tools and experience to help you pursue your financial goals—and live your life to the fullest.
From fast-growing startups and closely held family businesses to multi-generational enterprises, we will help empower you to operate more efficiently day-to-day, while laying a foundation for navigating the future.
We work closely and collaboratively with our endowment and non-profit clients to provide investment programs and hands-on portfolio management services pursuing global opportunities while seeking to ensure alignment with key business objectives.
We’re committed to seeking out and sharing the trends influencing markets and the outlooks that might inform our investment approach. In an industry like ours, being open to multiple viewpoints and fresh perspectives is a critical part of how we add value, and help our clients imagine all the possibilities.
In the world of finance, things change fast and there’s always more to learn. We’ve created a series of tools that will help you stay educated and keep you informed about the things that matter most.
Client Questions | September 30, 2018
If you have been watching the news lately, you have probably seen that the current bull market in the S&P 500 is now the longest ever, lasting about 3,500 days, and surpassing the run that occurred in the 1990s.
What is considered a bull market? The typical definition of a bull market is a rally that goes beyond 20% and is never interrupted by a 20% decline. The current bull market started on March 9, 2009, which was the depths of the financial crisis. We like to remind our clients that the market has certainly not gone up in a straight line over the last nine years and there have been plenty of drops along the way. The S&P 500 has experienced several corrections of greater than 10%, and even suffered a decline of 19.4% in 2011. Outside of the S&P 500, there have been bear markets in Energy, Financials, Small Caps, and several International Equity markets. While the current market cycle is unquestionably long, we do not believe that time alone is a reason to believe it will end soon.
At Winthrop Wealth Management, we believe that “bull markets do not die of old age, they die of recessions.” Right now, our view is that recession risk is low in the near-term (next 12 months). Recent economic data including the low unemployment rate, high yield spreads, leading indicators, and manufacturing surveys all signal a healthy economy. Putting it all together, we acknowledge that the bull market will end eventually, but we believe it will be for a multitude of factors rather than just old age.
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets. The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. ************************************************************************ All indexes mentioned are unmanaged indexes which cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The S&P Midcap 400 Stock Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the market for the stocks of mid-sized US companies. The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 index, which represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, including both government and corporate bonds. The Barclays Capital U.S. Credit Bond Index measures the performance of investment grade corporate debt and agency bonds that are dollar denominated and have a remaining maturity of greater than one year. The Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index is a broad market performance benchmark for the tax-exempt bond market, the bonds included in this index must have a minimum credit rating of at least Baa. The Barclays Capital US Corporate High Yield Bond index is an index representative of the universe of fixed-rate, non-investment grade debt The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following developed country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. The MSCI Europe Index captures large and mid cap representation across 15 Developed Markets (DM) countries in Europe*. With 445 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the European Developed Markets equity universe. The MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Japanese market. With 322 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan. The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the emerging market countries of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. The MSCI EM Index consists of the following emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors. The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index.