October 2026 Client Question of the Month – Pre-Midterm Elections | Winthrop Wealth
By Andrew Murphy, CFA
Co-Chief Investment Officer
With control of Congress in play this November, many clients are asking whether the outcome should change how they invest. Co-Chief Investment Officer Andrew Murphy, CFA, looks at nearly a century of S&P 500 returns under different makeups of Washington, what could change after the midterms, and why we caution against making portfolio decisions based on election results.
Endnote
¹ As of September 2026, prediction markets such as Polymarket have generally assigned a higher probability to Democrats gaining control of the House, while expectations for Senate control remain considerably more competitive. Prediction market forecasts are inherently uncertain and can change as new information becomes available.
Polymarket. (September 2026). 2026 Midterm Elections Predictions & Odds. Retrieved September 2026 from Polymarket 2026 Midterms.
The information contained herein is for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as individualized investment, tax, legal, or political advice. Any opinions expressed are those of Winthrop Wealth as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
Discussion of political events, elections, legislative matters, and prediction market forecasts is provided solely for market and economic context. References to election forecasts, polling data, or prediction markets reflect publicly available information and should not be interpreted as endorsements, political recommendations, guarantees, or predictions of future election outcomes.
Market and economic performance are influenced by numerous factors, including monetary policy, corporate earnings, economic growth, inflation, geopolitical developments, and investor sentiment. While government policy can affect financial markets, there is no assurance that any particular political party, election outcome, or governmental structure will result in favorable or unfavorable investment performance.
Historical market data and performance statistics are presented for illustrative and educational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Historical returns achieved under various political environments do not guarantee similar results in the future. Market performance may differ significantly from historical experience.
Any references to asset classes, market sectors, indices, or investment themes are intended solely to illustrate broader market concepts and should not be considered investment recommendations. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index that cannot be invested in directly.
All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Stock investing involves market risk, including fluctuating prices. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate, credit, inflation, and market risks. International investing involves additional risks, including political, economic, and currency-related risks.
Financial planning is a tool designed to assist in evaluating financial circumstances, goals, and objectives. There is no guarantee that any financial planning strategy will achieve its intended results. Asset allocation, diversification, and other investment strategies do not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
Winthrop Wealth’s investment recommendations are based on each client’s individual financial circumstances, objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon, liquidity needs, and other relevant factors. Clients should consult with their financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Sources
Congressional Budget Office. (2026, August 10). Monthly Budget Review: July 2026. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61983
Congressional Budget Office. (2026, February). The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105
US House of Representatives, Office of the Historian. (n.d.). Party Government Since 1857. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Party-Government/
US Senate Historical Office. (n.d.). Party Division. https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm
< COMMENTARY
Client Questions | September 28, 2026
October 2026 Client Question of the Month – Pre-Midterm Elections | Winthrop Wealth
By Andrew Murphy, CFA
Co-Chief Investment Officer
With control of Congress in play this November, many clients are asking whether the outcome should change how they invest. Co-Chief Investment Officer Andrew Murphy, CFA, looks at nearly a century of S&P 500 returns under different makeups of Washington, what could change after the midterms, and why we caution against making portfolio decisions based on election results.
DISCLOSURES
Endnote
¹ As of September 2026, prediction markets such as Polymarket have generally assigned a higher probability to Democrats gaining control of the House, while expectations for Senate control remain considerably more competitive. Prediction market forecasts are inherently uncertain and can change as new information becomes available.
Polymarket. (September 2026). 2026 Midterm Elections Predictions & Odds. Retrieved September 2026 from Polymarket 2026 Midterms.
The information contained herein is for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as individualized investment, tax, legal, or political advice. Any opinions expressed are those of Winthrop Wealth as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
Discussion of political events, elections, legislative matters, and prediction market forecasts is provided solely for market and economic context. References to election forecasts, polling data, or prediction markets reflect publicly available information and should not be interpreted as endorsements, political recommendations, guarantees, or predictions of future election outcomes.
Market and economic performance are influenced by numerous factors, including monetary policy, corporate earnings, economic growth, inflation, geopolitical developments, and investor sentiment. While government policy can affect financial markets, there is no assurance that any particular political party, election outcome, or governmental structure will result in favorable or unfavorable investment performance.
Historical market data and performance statistics are presented for illustrative and educational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Historical returns achieved under various political environments do not guarantee similar results in the future. Market performance may differ significantly from historical experience.
Any references to asset classes, market sectors, indices, or investment themes are intended solely to illustrate broader market concepts and should not be considered investment recommendations. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index that cannot be invested in directly.
All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Stock investing involves market risk, including fluctuating prices. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate, credit, inflation, and market risks. International investing involves additional risks, including political, economic, and currency-related risks.
Financial planning is a tool designed to assist in evaluating financial circumstances, goals, and objectives. There is no guarantee that any financial planning strategy will achieve its intended results. Asset allocation, diversification, and other investment strategies do not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
Winthrop Wealth’s investment recommendations are based on each client’s individual financial circumstances, objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon, liquidity needs, and other relevant factors. Clients should consult with their financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Sources
Congressional Budget Office. (2026, August 10). Monthly Budget Review: July 2026. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61983
Congressional Budget Office. (2026, February). The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105
US House of Representatives, Office of the Historian. (n.d.). Party Government Since 1857. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Party-Government/
US Senate Historical Office. (n.d.). Party Division. https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm