US Federal Debt 2025: Causes, Risks, CBO Projections, and Outlook
By Andrew Murphy, CFA
Co-Chief Investment Officer
The U.S. federal debt has reached unprecedented levels, sparking growing concern among economists, policymakers, and investors. In this August 2025 Client Question of the Month, Winthrop Wealth examines what’s driving the debt, the potential risks to economic stability, and the latest Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections. We break down the causes, explore historical context, and discuss how evolving policies—like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and new tariffs—may shape the nation’s fiscal outlook. This in-depth analysis offers valuable insights for those looking to understand the debt’s long-term implications and its impact on financial planning.
Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
Financial planning is a tool intended to review your current financial situation, investment objectives and goals, and suggest potential planning ideas and concepts that may be of benefit. There is no guarantee that financial planning will help you reach your goals.
Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio.
Diversification does not protect against market risk. All investing involves risk which you should be prepared to bear.
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Client Questions | August 15, 2025
US Federal Debt 2025: Causes, Risks, CBO Projections, and Outlook
By Andrew Murphy, CFA
Co-Chief Investment Officer
The U.S. federal debt has reached unprecedented levels, sparking growing concern among economists, policymakers, and investors. In this August 2025 Client Question of the Month, Winthrop Wealth examines what’s driving the debt, the potential risks to economic stability, and the latest Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections. We break down the causes, explore historical context, and discuss how evolving policies—like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and new tariffs—may shape the nation’s fiscal outlook. This in-depth analysis offers valuable insights for those looking to understand the debt’s long-term implications and its impact on financial planning.
August 2025 Client Question of the Month: Federal DebtDISCLOSURES
Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
Financial planning is a tool intended to review your current financial situation, investment objectives and goals, and suggest potential planning ideas and concepts that may be of benefit. There is no guarantee that financial planning will help you reach your goals.
Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio.
Diversification does not protect against market risk. All investing involves risk which you should be prepared to bear.